Office of State Assessment

Model to Project School Performance on Fourth and Eighth Grade Tests


We developed a model to project school-level performance on the State English Language Arts (ELA) and Mathematics examinations in grades four and eight. The model assumes that improvement in the proportion of students achieving criterion scores on the examinations is not linear from year to year. Basically, we assume that each district will exhibit growth proportionate to the initial pass rate. It is important to note that the State Education Department is not prescribing passing rates, but is seeking through this model to project those rates.

The School Accountability Success System requires a two-tiered criterion: a specified proportion of students should achieve level 2 performance or higher, and a smaller percentage of students must achieve Level 3 performance or higher. Ultimately, the accountability criterion will be passed on the proportion achieving level 3 only.

The technical derivation of the model appears in Appendix A. For the sake of parsimony, assumptions are made that the improvement in passing rates are a function of the proportion not passing the test in each succeeding class.

Last Updated: July 22, 2009