NYSED / P-12: EMSC / Special Education /

State Performance Plan

/ Overview of the Annual Performance Report Development / Attachment - State Performance Plan Indicator 14

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State Performance Plan (SPP) for 2005-2012 - Revised February 2011 - Indicator 14

Overview of the State Performance Plan Development

See Overview of the State Performance Plan (SPP) Development in the Introduction to the State Performance Plan.  In addition to the plan development activities described there, input on data collection for this indicator was sought from Commissioner’s Advisory Panel for Special Education Services (CAP) and representatives of the Regional Special Education Technical Assistance Support Centers (RSE-TASC).

Monitoring Priority: Effective General Supervision Part B / Effective Transition

Indicator 14:

Indicator definition used for students exiting through school year 2007-08: 
Percent of youth who had individualized education programs (IEPs), are no longer in secondary school and who have been competitively employed, enrolled in some type of postsecondary school, or both, within one year of leaving high school.

For school students exiting beginning with the 2008-09 school year and thereafter, this Indicator is defined as:

Percent of youth who are no longer in secondary school, had IEPs in effect at the time they left school, and were:

1. Enrolled in higher education within one year of leaving high school.
2. Enrolled in higher education or competitively employed within one year of leaving high school.
3. Enrolled in higher education or some other postsecondary education or training program; or competitively employed or in some other employment within one year of leaving high school.
   (20 U.S.C. 1416(a)(3)(B))

Note:  Because of the change in definition in March 2009, United States Education Department (USED) did not require reporting in the February 2010 APR for the 2008-09 school year, although New York State (NYS) completed the data collection and will report individual school district data using the prior definition. 

Measurement used for students exiting through school year 2007-08:

Percent = [(# of youth who had IEPs, are no longer in secondary school and who have been competitively employed, enrolled in some type of postsecondary school, or both, within one year of leaving high school) divided by the (# of youth assessed who had IEPs and are no longer in secondary school)] times 100.

Measurement used for students exiting beginning with the 2008-09 school year and thereafter:

1. Percent enrolled in higher education = [(# of youth who are no longer in secondary school, had IEPs in effect at the time they left school and were enrolled in higher education within one year of leaving high school) divided by the (# of respondent youth who are no longer in secondary school and had IEPs in effect at the time they left school)] times 100.
2. Percent enrolled in higher education or competitively employed within one year of leaving high school = [(# of youth who are no longer in secondary school, had IEPs in effect at the time they left school and were enrolled in higher education or competitively employed within one year of leaving high school) divided by the (# of respondent youth who are no longer in secondary school and had IEPs in effect at the time they left school)] times 100.
3. Percent enrolled in higher education, or in some other postsecondary education or training program; or competitively employed or in some other employment = [(# of youth who are no longer in secondary school, had IEPs in effect at the time they left school and were enrolled in higher education, or in some other postsecondary education or training program; or competitively employed or in some other employment) divided by the (# of respondent youth who are no longer in secondary school and had IEPs in effect at the time they left school)] times 100.

Overview of Issue/Description of System or Process:

From 2000 through 2007, NYS independently conducted a seven year study to collect post-school outcome data from special and general education Exiters. Stratified random samples of 13,000 special and general education students were followed since they were seniors in 2000 and 2001, with data collected during the senior year and at one-, three- and five-years beyond high school exit. The NYS LPSI found that, at one year beyond high school exit, 83 percent of the Class of 2001 completers had successfully transitioned to employment, postsecondary education and/or day program alternatives1 as compared to 96 percent of general education students who left the same high schools at the same time. Thus, NYS students with disabilities experienced a gap in post-school outcomes of approximately 13 percentage points as compared with their general education peers. However, 75 percent of an earlier group of students with disabilities from the senior class of 1995 at one-year had positive post-school transitions. The LPSI showed that over six years, successful post-school transitions for students with disabilities had climbed 8 percentage points, an improvement resulting from statewide technical assistance, such as provided by the TCS technical assistance centers.

Note that the NYS LPSI used a slightly different criterion for successful post-school transition.  While the SPP measure for Exiters through 2007-08 represents those “engaged at any time” during the post-school year, the LPSI used the criterion of the person being engaged at the point of interview one year out of school. If the federal SPP criterion were applied to the LPSI study data, the rate for all students would have been higher. This difference has implications for understanding the SPP results and improvement planning.

Plan to collect baseline data for 2005-06

Under the SPP requirements, baseline data was collected by interviewing students with disabilities exiting a representative sample of one-sixth of NYS school districts in 2005-06.  A short interview protocol was designed to determine post-school transition status in areas of competitive employment and/or enrollment in post-secondary schools.

Definitions

Exiters are defined to include those students with disabilities who had IEPs and who completed the high school program with any diploma or certificate of completion (i.e., Regents or local diploma, IEP diploma, high school equivalency diploma), who completed school by reaching the maximum age to attend special education or those dropping out during the academic year being reviewed.

Enrolled in higher education means youth have been enrolled on a full-or part-time basis in a community college (two-year program) or college/university (four or more year program) that meets the definition of “Institution of Higher Education” in the Higher Education Act (HEA), for at least one complete term, at anytime in the year since leaving high school: (a) in an educational program to earn a degree or other recognized credential; OR (b) in a training program that lasts at least one academic year to prepare for gainful employment in a recognized occupation.).

Competitive employment means that youth have worked for pay at or above the minimum wage in a setting with others who are nondisabled for a period of 20 hours a week for at least 90 days at any time in the year since leaving high school.  This includes military employment.

Enrolled in other postsecondary education or training means youth have been enrolled on a full- or part-time basis for at least one complete term at any time in the year since leaving high school in an education or training program (e.g., Job Corps; adult education; workforce development program; adult rehabilitation service programs; or other). Part-time is defined differently depending on the standard for the post-secondary school program.  For colleges, part-time course loads typically are defined as less than nine credit hours per semester.  Each person interviewed responds based on their understanding of what constitutes full- or part time for the institution or program they are attending. Interviewers are trained to provide guidance if requested or needed.

Some other employment means youth have worked for pay or been self-employed for a period of at least 90 days at any time in the year since leaving high school.  This includes working in a family business (e.g., farm, store, fishing, ranching, catering services, etc.)

Plan to collect baseline data for 2008-09

Same as above except that:

Enrolled in higher education has been redefined to mean youth have been enrolled on a full- or part-time basis in a community college (two-year program) or college/university (four or more year program) for at least one complete term, at any time in the year since leaving high school.

Enrolled in other postsecondary education or training also includes enrollment on a full- or part-time basis for at least one complete term at any time of the year since leaving high school in a vocational technical school that is less than a two-year program.

NYS continues to use a contractor to collect data for this indicator. The current contractor is Potsdam Institute for Applied Research (PIAR) at the State University in Potsdam, NY.  The schedule for collection of baseline data for 2008-09 school year cohort was as follows:

• By April 2009, districts were required to provide PIAR with student-specific contact and demographic information for students who left school between July 1 and December 31, 2008.  This group was designated as “Semester 1 Exiters.”
• By August 2009, districts were required to provide PIAR with student-specific contact and demographic information for students who left school between January 1 and June 30, 2009.  This group was designated as “Semester 2 Exiters.”

When possible, interviews with each identified Exiter were conducted by telephone, but the survey was available on the web and in hard copy by mail. Interviews were attempted between March 8 through April 19, 2010 for Semester 1 Exiters.  The major interviewing period was between June 2 through September 30, 2010.  All remaining Exiters were included in this second round of interviews.  Although the second round of interviewing started on June 2nd, no one was contacted for an interview until 12 months had passed since their reported Date of School Exit.

Districts submitted information on Exiters and sent out a notification/consent letter. Exiters who withdrew consent or for whom the district had no current contact information (letters were returned as undeliverable and the phone numbers on record did not work) were taken out of the survey pool.  With these Exiters excluded, 3,820 Exiters were included in the survey pool.  Of these targeted 3,820 students from 109 school districts (NYC counts as one district), 2,041 were available for interview, for a response rate of 53 percent. 

Sampling Plan Used

Sampling was used to establish the 2005-06 baseline for this indicator.  One-sixth of the school districts reported data on this indicator in 2005-06.  A different sample group of school districts will report in subsequent school years until all school districts report data on this indicator over the first six years of the SPP.  When each school district has reported once, the cycle will begin again in the same order. This represents approximately 110 school districts each year. The NYC School District will be included in the sample group each year. It is the only school district in NYS with a total enrollment of 50,000 or more students.  Because Indicator 14 data collection takes two years (the first year to identify school Exiters and the second year to conduct one-year out interviews), two samples will be identified in the fifth year to enable interview data to be collected during the sixth year, analyzed and reported for every district before the SPP expires. (See Attachment 2 to the SPP as revised June 2007)

NYS distributed all school districts among six statewide representative samples. These six groups of school districts were tested with Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) and there was no statistical difference among the six groups of school districts on the population variables described in Attachment 2 to the SPP as revised June 2007. These population variables were from the 2000 decennial census.

For Indicator 14 for school years 2005-06 and 2006-07, school districts with over 100 Exiters had a choice of reporting data on all Exiters or submitting data on a randomly selected representative sample of Exiters. The minimum number of students required for sampling under this indicator was obtained by using the sampling calculator provided by the State (https://www.p12.nysed.gov/sedcar/randomno.htm) and the guidelines provided below. The vast majority of school districts will need to submit data on all Exiters for this indicator. For a few large school districts, finding it less burdensome to report on a sample of students, the methodology described below (totally random sampling) was determined likely to produce a sample that is representative of the school district in terms of all variables, since every exiting student has the same chance as another student to be selected for the sample.

The State Education Department (SED) requires that school districts maintain documentation as described below if they chose to report data on a sample of students. The totally random sampling methodology and required documentation would eliminate selection bias. SED will attempt to prevent missing data by first describing precisely what the State needs to collect, providing technical assistance and then following up with school districts to request missing data. The completeness of data collection will improve after the first year and will continue to improve as long as requirements remain unchanged. All issues of confidentiality are addressed by following procedures in accordance with FERPA. SED will also guard against divulging personally identifiable information by not publicly reporting results when there are less than five students for whom data are available or when those results can be easily calculated based on other data provided.

 

Federal Indicator Number	Eligible Population of Students From Which A Random Sample Must be Selected	Minimum Number of Students in the Sample	Method for Selecting Students	Required Documentation
14	All students with disabilities who are no longer in secondary school but received some special education service during the school year (July 1-June 30) in district-operated programs or under contract with other service provider. (Include all students who left with a credential, reached maximum age for educational services or dropped out.)	School districts with less than 100 students with disabilities exiting, survey all students. School districts with 100 or more students use the sampling calculator. Require 95% confidence interval and plus or minus 5% margin of error.	If less than 100 Exiters, survey all students. For larger districts, use random selection using a random number table.	Documentation period is seven years. Maintain list of all eligible students, copy of Random Number Table used, beginning random number for selecting students and of all students who were selected their number.

NOTE: Beginning with reporting for 2007-08 Exiters, the option of sampling students for Indicator 14 was discontinued.  No districts scheduled to report on this indicator, except for NYC, are permitted to sample students to report for this indicator.  See Sampling Plan, Attachment 2.

Establishing the Baseline Sample for 2005-06

• By January 2006, school districts selected for this indicator for the 2005-06 reporting year were notified by SED that they must obtain contact information and consent to be contacted from all or their sample of students who left secondary school between the months of January to June 2006. The shorter period for the baseline cycle was used because this was the earliest that schools could reasonably be expected to be implement the process created under the first submission of the SPP in December 2005. School districts provided demographic and contact data for these students to the contractor, the Potsdam Institute for Applied Research (PIAR) at SUNY Potsdam. Demographic data included name of the school district and student identification, date of birth, year of exit, primary disability, gender, race/ethnicity information, type of school exit (e.g., graduation, drop out, aging out) and special education placement during the student’s last year of school participation.
• By September 2006, school districts submitted the contact and demographic information to PIAR, who verified completeness of information with school districts and initiated planning for interviewing, via a calling center and creating mail and on-line survey alternatives. Survey protocols were programmed and interviewer training was designed. Recruitment of interviewers anticipated addressing the multi-lingual needs of former students as identified in the student information provided to PIAR.
• In mid-March 2007, PIAR sent letters to the entire survey pool of 2,936 former students to remind them of the purpose of the future call. If contact information failed to reach the former student, PIAR followed up with the school district to seek additional contact information. Most districts except NYC were able to provide additional contact information. PIAR also used web searches of on-line directories and databases to search for alternative addresses to supplement the outreach process.
• From April through the end of July 2007, interviews were conducted by PIAR using a modified form of the National Post-School Outcomes Center Post-School Data Collection Protocol, involving twelve basic questions plus one qualitative question regarding connections to adult services and supports. Call Center hours included early morning through evening hours, seven days per week, except holidays. English and Spanish-speaking interviewers were available.  A maximum of 20 calls per former student was made, varied across time-of-day and day-of-week.
• Questions pertaining to employment and postsecondary education include the following:

Employment

1. The level of employment, from working in a competitive employment setting for pay to supported employment.
2. If employed at all during the previous year.
3. If currently employed.
4. Hours worked per week.
5. Typical hourly wage received.
6. If the job provides health insurance benefits (an indicator of the stability of the level of engagement in the world of work).
7. If not employed, why?

Postsecondary Education

8. The level of postsecondary education (from 4-year college program to Adult Basic Education).
9. If ever participated in postsecondary education.
10. If currently involved in postsecondary education.
11. Whether enrolled full or part time.
12. If not engaged in postsecondary education, why?

Awareness of and engagement with vocational rehabilitation and related adult services.

• Final reports to NYSED were provided by the end of September beginning in 2007 as they will be in each subsequent year, including all responses as well as analyses of response rates and differential outcomes by school, location (Big Five City vs. Rest of State), major demographic characteristics and type of school exit.

Future cycles of collecting the data will follow a similar schedule and process, with two exceptions. In subsequent annual data collections, beginning 2006-07, Exiters from the complete school year September to June will be included. Secondly, to increase response rates from larger districts, beginning with the 2008-09 student Exiters, sampling will be discontinued for all districts except NYC. 

Because Indicator 14 data collection takes two years (the first year to identify school Exiters and the second year to conduct one-year out interviews), two samples will be identified in the fifth year (2009-10 SY) to enable interview data to be collected during the sixth year, analyzed and reported for every district before the SPP expires. (See Attachment 2 to the SPP as revised June 2007)

Baseline Data for FFY 2005 (2005-06)

Out of a targeted 2,917 student Exiters from 107 school districts (NYC counts as one district), 1,908 students were available for interview, for a response rate of 65 percent. 92 percent of those who were interviewed reported being in post secondary school and/or competitive employment at some point during the year after exiting high school in 2005-06. The post-school status of the 1,009 former students who could not be reached for interview is unknown.

Discussion of FFY 2005 Baseline Data:

Representativeness of FFY 2005 Survey Pool
Table 1 addresses the representativeness of the survey pool compared with all Exiters for 2005-06. The survey pool is the group of students that school districts identified to PIAR to be interviewed. The NPSO recommends using a +/-3 percent difference to judge the representativeness of demographic subgroups reported in Table 1. Using this criterion, the survey pool is representative of disability subgroups and gender. Minority students and students who dropped out of school are under represented at -15.9 percent and -14.8 percent, respectively. Similar analysis of representation by geographic region showed that for the Big Five Cities included in the sample, only students who dropped out are under represented at -8.6 percent. For the Rest-of-State, students who dropped out are under represented at -10.2 percent and minority students are slightly under represented at -4.7 percent.

Table 1: Representativeness of Survey Pool Compared to Total Exiters for All NYS Schools During 2005-06, as reported in PD-5 Data Reports
Statewide Demographic Representativeness
Statewide			Learning Disabilities	Emotional Disabilities	Mental Retardation	All Other Disabilities	Female	Minority	Dropout
PD-5 Report			61%	13%	5%	21%	35%	44%	30%
Survey Pool Representation			63%	11%	4%	22%	36%	28%	16%
Note: positive difference indicates over-representation; negative difference indicates under-representation on the interview pool.
Difference			2.2%	-2.6%	-0.6%	1%	0.7%	-15.9%	-14.8%

Two factors are believed to contribute to these differences in representation:

1. The PD-5 report represents Exiters for the entire school year, but the 2005-06 survey pool represents Exiters from the second half of the year. Dropping out is believed to more often occur during the first semester.
2. The consent process influences the composition of the survey pool. The consent process requires school districts to contact Exiters and their families to inform them about Indicator 14, to obtain contact information and to expect to be interviewed a year after leaving school. If a district cannot contact Exiters or their families or if there is a refusal of consent, the person is removed from the survey pool. Most often, these students have left by dropping out or have less stable living situations.

Representativeness of FFY 2005 Response Pool

Table 2 addresses the representativeness of the response pool, compared with the PD-5 report about all Exiters. The response pool is comprised of the students from the survey pool who actually were interviewed and who fit the criteria of being Exiters after one year. Using the PSO criteria of +/-3 percent to judge representativeness of subgroups, the response pool is representative of gender and all but one disability group. Exiters with emotional disabilities are slightly under represented at -4.5 percent. Minority and students and students who dropped out of school are under represented at -22.7 percent and -20.5 percent respectively. For the Big Five Cities, the response pool is representative of gender, minority and all but one disability subgroup. Exiters with emotional disabilities are slightly under represented at -4.1 percent. Students who dropped out of school are under represented at -18.2 percent. For the Rest-of-State, students who dropped out and minority students are under represented at -13.8 percent and -8.9 percent, respectively. Students with emotional disabilities are slightly under represented at -3.5 percent. The factors contributing to under representation by these groups include their under representation in the survey pool and having lower response rates.

Table 2: Representativeness of FFY 2005 Response Pool Compared to Total Exiters for All NYS Schools During 2005-06, as reported in PD-5 Data Reports
Statewide Demographic Representativeness
Statewide		Learning Disabilities	Emotional Disabilities	Mental Retardation	All Other Disabilities	Female	Minority	Dropout
Census Representation		61%	13%	5%	21%	35%	44%	30%
Response Pool Representation		63%	9%	4%	24%	35%	21%	10%
Note: positive difference indicates over-representation; negative difference indicates under-representation on the interview pool.
Difference		1.4%	-4.5%	-0.7%	3.8%	0.1%	-22.7%	-20.5%

Response Rates for the FFY 2005 Baseline

• Within the survey pool, the response rates for three demographic subgroups were less than 65 percent: students with emotional disabilities at 55 percent; minority students at 50 percent; and students who dropped out of school at 42 percent.
• For the Big Five Cities, the response rate was 52 percent, with two groups falling below this rate: students with emotional disabilities at 45 percent and students who dropped out of school at 39 percent.
• For the Rest-of-State, there was a response rate of 69 percent, with three groups falling below this rate: students with emotional disabilities at 58 percent; minority students at 49 percent; and students who dropped out at 45 percent.

Implications for Interpreting and Applying the FFY 2005 Data

In reviewing the data results, readers are cautioned that the percent of former students with positive post-school outcomes is not representative of students who dropped out of school, minority students and students with emotional disabilities since these subgroups were underrepresented in student responses to the survey interviews.

Data Reliability and Validity for FFY 2005

Strategies are needed to equalize the response rates between the largest school districts and the rest of the participating schools that provide data for this indicator. Outreach activities need to be enhanced to find students who dropped out and assure their representation in the data. Strategies for improving response rates and representativeness for this indicator are discussed under the Improvement Activities/Timelines/Resources section.

Major Findings from FFY 2005 Baseline

• 92 percent of the 1,908 interviewed 2005-06 exiting students with disabilities reported that they participated in competitive employment and/or post secondary school enrollment at some point during the year since they left high school.
• If military service is counted as “competitive employment,” the percent of students with positive post-school transitions would be 1.3 percent higher (n=25), or 93 percent.
• Based on past post-school studies, we believe that “employed and/or in post secondary school at the point of interview one-year beyond high school exit” is a better measure and may include some indication of sustaining positive post-school outcomes.
• Using this criterion, the percent of former students achieving positive post-school outcomes would be only 84 percent, distributed as follows: 24 percent in post secondary school only; 30 percent both working competitively and in post secondary school, and 30 percent in competitive employment only.
• Also using this criterion, there are 15 percent fewer former students sustaining themselves in employment and nine percent fewer former students sustaining their participation in post secondary school programs. (Note: there is some double counting here, because some students were doing both activities and some were only doing one).
• Only half of the former students not sustaining their participation in competitive employment or post secondary schools had heard of vocational rehabilitation services and, of these, only one third were using them. This means that sustaining post-school transitions also represents an area for improvement and that stronger alliances between schools and adult service agencies are needed to effect smooth transitions that are sustained beyond immediate school exit.
• Of the 1,200 former students who participated in post secondary school at any point during the year since leaving school, 883 (73.6 percent) participated in two-year college programs (47.1 percent) or four-year college programs (26.5 percent). Seven out of every 8 students participating in college programs participated full-time.
• Of the 1,429 former students who worked competitively at any time within one year of leaving school, 577 were found on interview to be still employed one year later and not attending post secondary school. Of this group, for whom employment is the primary activity, two-thirds work full-time, with the majority working 40 hours per week. The average wage for all 577 former students was $8.90 per hour and the average hours worked was 35.7 hours per week.
• Type of school exit: While 96 percent of students with regular diplomas transitioned to post-secondary school and/or competitive employment at some point during the year after school exit, only 84 percent of students with IEP diplomas and 78 percent of students who dropped out had these positive post-school outcomes. While 77 percent of all students transitioned to employment, only 63 percent of students with IEP diplomas and 69 percent of students who dropped out of school did so.
  

2005-06 Post-School Outcomes by Type of Exit
2005-06 Post-School Outcome	Statewide Responses 2005-06		Regular HS Diploma (Regents, Local, HS Equivalency		Certificate or Modified Diploma (IEP Diploma)		Dropped Out		Other Exit Reasons*
	N	%	N	%	N	%	N	%	N	%
Total in category	1908	100%	1312	100%	377	100%	188	100%	31	100%
All Post-school Outcomes**	1747	92%	1262	96%	316	84%	146	78%	23	74%
Postsecondary school only	318	17%	215	16%	77	20%	16	9%	10	32%
Both competitively employed and post secondary school	882	46%	733	56%	91	24%	53	28%	5	16%
Only competitively employed	547	29%	314	24%	148	39%	77	41%	8	26%
Other: military service	25	1%	20	2%	3	1%	1	1%	1	3%
Neither	136	7%	30	2%	58	15%	41	22%	7	23%
* “Other” may include that the student reached maximum age or that reasons were not reported. ** “All” represents the sum of post secondary school and/or competitive employment. It excludes military service.

• School characteristics: Students from NYC, which has the highest resource needs, had fewer transitions (82 percent) in comparison to students from Rest-of-State (93 percent). Competitive employment was less often reported by students from NYC (57 percent) than by students from the Rest-of-State (78 percent).
• Demographics of Students: There are no significant differences by gender. Fewer minority students had positive post-school outcomes (85 percent) than did white students (93 percent). Fewer minority students (65 percent) reported competitive employment than did white students (77 percent).

Based on FFY 2005 baseline:

• Encourage districts to provide better contact information by requesting three distinct sets of contacts instead several individuals all living at the same location.
• Encourage districts to check with student and families to confirm or update contact information. This could be done when they formally notify youth and families about SPP Indicator 14, at Parent-Teacher conferences, IEP meetings and when the student is given their Student Exit Summary prior to graduation.
• Modify “Sampling Methodology” to drop sampling for any school district except for NYC. The work of larger districts in compiling randomly selected student lists and over sampling to address lower response rates will be dropped. These districts will be asked instead to provide lists of all Exiters that include contact information known at the school building the student attends, which is typically more up-to-date with this information than centralized data bases.
• Based the first round of data collection, NYC will be asked to increase its sample size as well as provide more up-to-date contact information from the buildings attended by the students. Discussions have begun with city administrators on these and other creative solutions to address the lower response rate.
• Contact youth enrolled by the districts by phone at the end of each semester to verify their contact information as soon it is submitted by the school district rather than waiting until the April following school exit. For example calls were made to 2006-07 youth enrolled in the 2006-07 survey pool during November 2007. If these calls prove effective in increasing response rates, they will be repeated in subsequent cycles.
• In addition to discussing their post-school status, provide interviewed students and/or their families with lists of services that may assist the student to obtain more successful outcomes, including returning to school, if the student has dropped out.

New Baseline Data for FFY 2008 (2008-09 school year Exiters)

Federal changes in the definition of the indicator in March 2009 necessitated resetting a new baseline with students who exited school in FFY 2008.  Data reported below for 2008-09 comprise the State’s new baseline data; they cannot be compared to prior years’ data for this indicator.

Data on Exiters from the 2007-08 School Year was collected on schedule but not reported as part of the APR that was submitted February 2010.  However, individual school district reports were publicly reported.

Baseline Data for FFY 2009

1. 43 percent of youth (n=876) who are no longer in secondary school and had IEPs in effect at the time they left school  were enrolled in higher education; 
2. 64 percent of youth (n=1,314) who are no longer in secondary school and had IEPs in effect at the time they left school were enrolled in higher education or were competitively employed (n=438) (note – results for B include results for A); and
3. 77 percent of youth (n=1564) who are no longer in secondary school and had IEPs in effect at the time they left school  were enrolled in higher education or in some other post-secondary education or training program (n=135), or competitively employed or in some other employment (n=115) within one year of leaving high school.  (note- results for C include results for B and results for A)

3,820 Exiters were included in the survey pool.  Of these targeted 3,820 students from 109 school districts (NYC counts as one district), 2,041 were available for interview, for a response rate of 53 percent. 

Measure 1 = 876 respondent Exiters were enrolled in “higher education.”
Measure 2 = 438 respondent Exiters were engaged in “competitive employment” (and not counted in 1 above).
Measure 3 = 135 of respondent Exiters were enrolled in “some other postsecondary education or training” (and not counted in 1 or 2 above).
Measure 4 = 115 of respondent Exiters were engaged in “some other employment” (and not counted in 1, 2, or 3 above).

To calculate the above indicator percentages, the following calculations were used:

A = 1 divided by total respondents; 876/2041= 43%
B = 1 + 2 divided by total respondents; (876+438)/2041= 64%
C = 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 divided by total respondents; (876+438+135+115)/2041= 77%

Table 3 - 2008-09 Post-School Outcomes
2008-09 Post-School Outcome* within one year of leaving high school	Statewide Responses 2008-09
	N	%
Total in category	2041	100%
1. Enrolled in higher education	876	43%	A	B	C
2. Competitively employed but not enrolled in higher education	438	21%	64%
3. Enrolled in some other post-secondary education or training program but neither enrolled in higher education nor competitively employed	135	7%	77%
4. In some other employment, but neither enrolled in higher education, nor some other post-secondary education or training program and not competitively employed	115	6%
All SPP Post-school Outcomes	1564	77%
SPP Not Engaged	477	23%
* “Post-school outcomes” are defined differently than in past years – see definition section for Indicator 14, which has been updated consistent with new federal definitions.  For example, higher education only includes two- and four-year colleges and competitive employment includes military service.

Discussion of FFY 2008 Baseline Data:

Representativeness of FFY 2008 Survey Pool

Table 4 addresses the representativeness of the FFY 2008 survey pool compared with all Exiters from all school districts during school year 2008-09.  The “survey pool” refers to the group of students that school districts identified for the contractor, PIAR, to interview during FFY 2009.  The NPSO recommends using a +/-3 percent difference to evaluate the representativeness of the demographic subgroups reported in Table 5.  Per this criterion, the baseline survey pool is representative of disability subgroups and gender. 

• Minority students and students who dropped out of school are under represented by 8.2 percent and 6.3 percent respectively. 
• Analysis of representation by geographic region show that, for the Big Five Cities included in the sample, the “All Other Disabilities” category is under represented by 12.2 percent (16.9 percent  vs. 29.2 percent) and that students who dropped out was also under represented by 7.8 percent (32.8 percent  vs. 40.6 percent).
• For the Rest-of State, the “All Other Disabilities” category is slightly over represented by 3.1 percent (33.7 percent vs. 30.5 percent), students who dropped out are slightly under represented by 3.3 percent (13.3 percent vs. 16.6 percent), and Minority students are slightly under represented by 4.4 percent (17.2 percent vs. 21.7 percent).
  
  

Table 4: Representativeness of Survey Pool Compared to Exiters for All NYS Schools During 2008-09, as reported in VR10 Data Reports.
Statewide Demographic Representativeness
Statewide	Learning Disabilities	Emotional Disabilities	Mental Retardation	All Other Disabilities	Female	Minority	Dropout
Census Representation (n=30,012)	57.3%	12.5%	4.3%	25.9%	35.8%	46.6%	25.5%
Survey Pool Representation (n=3820)	56.6%	11.9%	2.9%	28.6%	34.7%	38.5%	19.2%
Difference	-0.7%	-0.6%	-1.4%	2.7%	-1.2%	-8.2%	-6.3%
Note: Positive difference indicates over-representation; negative difference indicates under-representation on the interview pool.   Note:  The State report of all Exiters from special education from all schools is called the “VR-10” report.  Totals from this report were adjusted to remove data for students who remained in school but were declassified and did not have an IEP in effect at school exit, who died, or whose reason for exit was a transfer to another school.

The consent process itself influences the composition of the survey pool.  The consent process requires school districts to contact potential Exiters and their families prior to the student exiting school to inform them about Indicator 14 activities, to obtain contact information and to make them aware they can expect to be interviewed a year after leaving school. Minority students and students who dropped out are disproportionately from New York City and other High Need Urban/Suburban districts in NYS.  The contact information on file is more often out-of-date in these urban districts, and more difficult to update, than in other school districts. If a district cannot contact potential Exiters or their families or if there is a refusal of consent, the student is removed from the survey pool.

Representativeness of FFY 2008 Response Pool

Table 5 addresses the representativeness of the response pool compared with the VR-10 report about all Exiters.  The response pool is comprised of the students from the survey pool who were actually reached for interview at least one year after leaving school.  Using the PSO criteria described above to evaluate representativeness of subgroups, the response pool is representative of gender and all disability groups except All Other Disability which is over represented by 5.8 percent (31.7 percent vs. 25.9 percent.  Minority students are under represented by 14.3 percent (32.4 percent vs. 46.6 percent). Students who left by dropping out are also under represented by 11.1 percent (14.5 percent vs. 25.5 percent) The factors contributing to under representation by these groups include their over/under representation in the survey pool of students referred by the schools for interview, and lower group response rates to efforts made to contact former students for interview.

Table 5: Representativeness of Response Pool Compared to Total Exiters for All NYS Schools During 2008-09, as reported in VR10 Data Reports
Statewide Demographic Representativeness
Statewide	Learning Disabilities	Emotional Disabilities	Mental Retardation	All Other Disabilities	Female	Minority	Dropout
Census Representation (n=30,012)	57.3%	12.5%	4.3%	25.9%	35.8%	46.6%	25.5%
Response Pool Representation (n=2,041)	55.3%	10.1%	2.8%	31.7%	33.6%	32.4%	14.5%
Difference	-2.0%	-2.4%	-1.5%	+5.8%	-2.2%	-14.3%	-11.1%
Note: Positive difference indicates over representation; negative difference indicates under representation in the interview pool.

Table 6 displays post-school outcomes by Exit Type.  Those who graduated from high school (Local, Regents, or General Education Development (GED)) have the highest rates of participation in one of the four post-school outcomes at 88 percent.  Those who dropped out have the lowest rate at 45 percent. 

Table 6 - 2008-09 Post-School Outcomes by Type of Exit
2008-09 Post-School Outcome* within one year of leaving high school	Statewide Responses 2008-09		Regular HS Diploma (Regents, Local, GED)		Certificate or Modified Diploma (IEP Diploma)		Dropped Out		Other Exit Reasons**
	N	%	N	%	N	%	N	%	N	%
Total in category	2041	100%	1325	65%	375	18%	295	15%	46	2%
All Post-school Outcomes	1564	77%	1160	88%	238	63%	133	45%	33	72%
1. Enrolled in higher education	876	43%	812	61%	47	13%	11	4%	6	13%
2. Competitively employed but not enrolled in higher education	438	21%	264	20%	98	26%	61	21%	15	33%
3. Enrolled in some other postsecondary education or training program but neither enrolled in higher education nor competitively employed	135	7%	43	3%	66	18%	20	7%	6	13%
4. In some other employment, but neither enrolled in higher education, nor some other postsecondary education or training program and not competitively employed	115	6%	41	3%	27	7%	41	14%	6	13%
None of the above	477	23%	165	12%	137	37%	162	55%	7	28%
*“Post-school outcomes” are defined differently than in past years – see definition section for Indicator 14, which has been updated consistent with new federal definitions.  For example, higher education only includes two- and four-year colleges and competitive employment includes military service. **“Other” may include that the student reached maximum age or that reasons were not reported.

Examination of postsecondary participation shows that Exit Type significantly affects postsecondary education:

• 61 percent of Exiters with Regents, Local or High School Equivalency diplomas report they are in 2- or 4 year college or university and three (3) percent report participation in other types of postsecondary education2.
• Four (4) percent of those who dropped out report they are in 2- or 4- year college or university and seven (7) percent report participation in other types of postsecondary education.
• For those with IEP diplomas, 13 percent report they are in 2- or 4 year college or university and 18 percent report participation in other types of postsecondary education or training programs.  Half of this 18 percent is due to participation in rehabilitation programs.

Measurable and Rigorous Targets

FFY (school year students left)	Measurable and Rigorous Target
2005 (2005-06) Baseline	Baseline = 92 percent of youth with IEPs*, who exited school in 2005-06 are no longer in secondary school and who have been competitively employed**, enrolled in some type of post secondary school, or both, within one year of leaving school (i.e., during 2006-07).
2006 (2006-07)	92 percent of youth with IEPs*, who exited school in 2006-07 are no longer in secondary school and who have been competitively employed**, enrolled in some type of post secondary school, or both, within one year of leaving school (i.e., during 2007-08).
2007 (2007-08)	92 percent of youth with IEPs*, who exited school in 2007-08 are no longer in secondary school and who have been competitively employed**, enrolled in some type of post secondary school, or both, within one year of leaving school (i.e., during 2008-09).

New Baseline Data and Targets Established Beginning with FFY  2008

FFY (school year students left)	Measurable and Rigorous Target
2008*** (2008-09) BASELINE	Baseline = A. 43 percent will be enrolled in higher education for at least one complete term; B. 64 percent will be enrolled either in higher education or being competitively employed (note – target for B includes target for A); C. 77 percent will be enrolled in higher education or in some other postsecondary education or training program, or competitively employed or in some other employment within one year of leaving high school.  (note - target for C includes targets for B and for A) Based on post-school outcomes of school Exiters during 2008-09, a new baseline and targets are being established using the new Measurement categories and reported in the SPP due February 1, 2011.
2009*** (2009-10)	43 percent will be enrolled in higher education for at least one complete term; 64 percent will be enrolled either in higher education or being competitively employed (note – target for B includes target for A); 77 percent will be enrolled in higher education or in some other postsecondary education or training program, or competitively employed or in some other employment within one year of leaving high school.  (note - target for C includes targets for B and for A)
2010*** (2010-11)	44 percent will be enrolled in higher education for at least one complete term; 65 percent will be enrolled either in higher education or being competitively employed (note – target for B includes target for A); 78 percent will be enrolled in higher education or in some other postsecondary education or training program, or competitively employed or in some other employment within one year of leaving high school.  (note- target for C includes targets for B and for A)
2010*** (2010-11)	44 percent will be enrolled in higher education for at least one complete term; 65 percent will be enrolled either in higher education or being competitively employed (note – target for B includes target for A); 80 percent will be enrolled in higher education or in some other postsecondary education or training program, or competitively employed or in some other employment within one year of leaving high school.  (note - target for C includes targets for B and for A)
*”Percent of youth with IEPs” refers to the percent of students who could be reached for interview. **In these targets, competitive employment excluded military service. The change in the measure in March 2009 will require including individuals with military service to the competitive employment outcome. *** In FFY 2009, the United States Education Department (USED) requested states to add two additional years to the SPP, including adding two additional years of targets.

Improvement Activities/Timelines/Resources:

Improvement activities center around efforts to target technical assistance and transition funding based on gaps identified in the baseline data for students at-risk of dropping out and who exit with IEP diplomas and in improving the reliability and validity of data collected on this measure. Assistance will be provided regarding development of student samples of an adequate size to offset anticipated low response rates.

Activity	Timeline	Resources
See improvement activities for indicators 1, 2 and 13	2008-12*	Regional Special Education Technical Assistance Support Centers (RSE-TASC) Regional Transition Specialists (rev. 1/10)
Prioritize training and technical assistance delivered by Transition Specialists to improve transition outcomes based on gaps in post-school outcomes identified for subpopulations: i.e., for students who dropped out and for students who exited with IEP diplomas. (rev.2/11)	2007-12*	RSE-TASC regional Transition Specialists (rev. 1/10)
Implement Model Transition Programs in 60 consortia of school districts throughout the State to build capacity for in-school career preparation and smooth transitions to vocational rehabilitation (VR) for students needing those services.	2007-09 Completed (See APR 2/10)	Competitive contracts with 60 school district consortia in collaboration with VESID VR District Offices
VR policy development will be revised to enhance the availability of VR counseling to transitioning students no later than their junior year and the revision of economic need policies related to funding support during postsecondary education, including provision of career-related internships during postsecondary education study.	2007-09 Completed 8/08 (See APR 2/09 )	VESID VR Policy Unit
Increase Independent Living Center (ILC) initiatives to facilitate making and sustaining post-school transitions, including identifying and connecting appropriate adult role models with currently transitioning secondary students (e.g., through mentoring programs, shadowing experiences and other innovations to increase student awareness of successful adult roles).	2008-09 Completed	ILC network VR District Offices
Develop an alternate high school exiting credential that documents student experiences and achievements toward career goals.	2010-12	SED Staff with consultants
*Note: Extended the end dates to 2012 coinciding with extended dates of the SPP (rev. 2/11).

• For additional detail on activities revised, completed or added in the school year 2007-08, see pp. 95-97 at https://www.p12.nysed.gov/specialed/spp/apr2009/final.pdf
• For additional detail on activities revised, completed or added in the school year 2008-09, see pp. 81-82 at https://www.p12.nysed.gov/specialed/spp/apr2010/revisedApril2010-final.pdf

1 Day program alternatives are adult rehabilitation service programs designed for persons with the most severe disabilities who cannot successfully compete in the competitive labor market or matriculate in traditional postsecondary education settings even with extensive support. Services provided in these day program alternatives typically involve provision of developmental therapies to improve daily living, independent living, and social skills and to provide prevocational training. Placement in these settings is not necessarily an end-placement. As individuals acquire more skills and new systems for providing support evolve, participants may transition full- or part-time into other more integrated settings, including supported employment or supported postsecondary education models. Inclusion of this outcome in NYS’ definition of postsecondary school was highly recommended by the CAP to assure that students with the most severe disabilities are included in NYS’ transition services.  Such outcomes will be applied to the new criterion C, included as “other training program or employment.”

2Other postsecondary or training program includes Vocational Technology College (< 2-year), Trade Apprenticeship, or WIA - One Stop, Job Corp, continuing education classes or Ameri Corps, GED or Adult Basic Education (ABE) Program, College Preparatory, Rehabilitation Services and Other

Last Updated: February 24, 2011ate -->